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Progress tracker wave pattern
29 Apr 2013, 12:01
Not sure if there has been a discussion yet about this, had a search of the forums but didn't spot anything.

Has anyone else noticed that the progress tracker stats graphs show a distinct monthly cycle on the chart of Week by Week Weight Loss in KGs over first 6 months

After the first month of steep loss, there are distinct waves of increased and decreased loss, which more or less equate to a four week cycle.

Now my obvious first thought on this is that it's because the majority of users here are female and a large percentage will still be menstruating, so that might affect the amounts lost each week. However, that would mean we were all menstruating in the exact same weeks of our diet's progress. Is it likely that we all started in the same week of our cycle and are all now in sync? :bugeyes:

Can the statisticians here say whether we have enough data for week 16 and beyond to see whether this is a significant factor in the diet? Surely once there are enough users, then the fact we started at different times in our cycle should mean that menstrual variations would even out over the data.

Or is there some other significant factor taking place here? I filtered the data to just look at males, or just look at older females and there is still a wave pattern showing, albeit more variable. Does our body go through a cycle of adjustment in terms of the fat loss on a roughly monthly basis? :?:
I suspect that this is a case of what kencc describes as apophenia: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=4149 :grin:
Maybe :lol:

I did wonder if I was seeing things, or whether it was statistically relevant

I think kencc's data is just his own though, and is daily? Hope he pops in here and has something to say.
Well, I can say from my own chart that this has happened to me. I got a steepish down trend over the first 3-4 weeks and then it goes up and down so that the trend has pretty much levelled out. I'm currently looking at my food diaries to see if I can find a reason so I was interested to read this post. Cant blame hormones as I'm waaaaay past that!
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