I think you are being a bit disingenuous to dismiss the clinical diabetes paper because the first author is a 3rd year student. The other authors must agree with the findings surely and they are an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University
School of Medicine, is an associate professor at the Diabetes Research and Training Center at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, is director of the Prevention and Control Core of the Vanderbilt Diabetes Research and Training Center at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and medical director of the Vanderbilt Eskind Diabetes Center and editor-in-chief of Clinical Diabetes.
Be that as it may, the key points that I found in the paper were:
The short- and long-term efficacy of weight loss programs [shows that] with the exception of continuous pharmacological therapy, the pattern of weight regain is evident from 6 months on.
Pre-treatment indicators of future weight regain include older age;69 Mexican-American ethnicity;70 frequent previous diet attempts;71,72 high baseline or maximum weight;73-75 nonmedical triggers for weight loss induction;76 binge eating;77 dietary disinhibition (loss of control while eating);77,78 “all or nothing” thinking;79 perceived barriers to exercise, including “too tired,” “too hard,” “not enough time,” and “no companion”; perceived barriers to diet, including “high cost of healthy foods” and “eating away from home too often”;19,20 and lacking self-efficacy, motivation, realistic weight loss goals, and a strong body image.80
Post-weight loss indicators of weight regain include weight loss > 15-30% of baseline weight;14,81 early regain;82 not responding to early regain;78 perceptions of hunger;83 dissatisfaction with achieved weight loss;80 dietary disinhibition;81 emotional eating;78 binge eating; consuming a diet high in calories, fats, and sugars;14 frequent consumption of fast food (> 2-3 times per week);20 a sedentary lifestyle or decreased frequency and level of physical activity;14 and viewing more than 2-4 hours of television a day.14 Although somewhat counterintuitive, continuation of weight loss efforts is also associated with weight regain.16,73
During the first years of weight loss maintenance, continued effort and attention to weight control is essential. By 2 years, however, maintainers report less reliance on weight loss strategies and reduced attention and effort to weight control, perhaps reflecting new habit assimilation.85 Furthermore, maintenance of weight loss for ≥ 2 years is protective against subsequent regain; by 2 years the likelihood of regaining 2.6 kg in the coming year is only 50%; by 5 years the likelihood drops to 27%.81 Evidence from the NHANES survey similarly supported the contention that among successful weight loss maintainers, years from maximal weight loss is protective against weight regain
For all programs, maximal weight loss occurs in the first 6 months of therapy. For all nonpharmacological programs, weight regain begins shortly thereafter. On average, weight losses at 2 years range between 3 and 6% for nonpharmacological therapies and between 7and 8% for pharmacological therapies. For individuals at risk, these outcomes are within the range known to induce improvements in cardiovascular risk factors and prevent type 2 diabetes
It will be fascinating to see whether the fast diet follows the same pattern described in the above paragraph!