The FastDay Forum

[carorees]

I was wondering whether there was a quick way of using the progress tracker stats to give an idea of how many people are finding 5:2 is not working for them. A quick look at the forum stats shows:

This is a mean average of 0.525kg lost per member per week (median 0.427kg, standard deviation 0.149kg).

If we filter the results to include only those doing 5:2 and only those who have been following the diet for at least a month we get

This is a mean average of 0.462kg lost per member per week (median 0.392kg, standard deviation 0.117kg).

And if we just look at 5:2ers on the diet for over 3 months we get:

This is a mean average of 0.399kg lost per member per week (median 0.336kg, standard deviation 0.106kg).

Now, my understanding of standard deviations is that about two-thirds of all observations lie within 1 standard deviation of the mean and that about 95.45% of the values lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean. So applying this to the above information we get:

For the whole forum, two-thirds of people are losing between 0.376 and 0.674 kg per week (1SD) and 95% of people are losing between 0.227 kg and 0.823 kg per week (2SD). So only 2.5% of people are losing less than half a pound a week. I think that says the diet is working?

However, just to be sure let's apply this to the group of people only doing 5:2 and ignore the 4:3 and ADF followers and also let's exclude those who haven't been on the diet for long so as to focus on the longer-term effectiveness of 5:2. For those on the diet for 1 month or more, two thirds are losing 0.345 to 0.579 kg/week and 95% of people are losing between 0.227 and 0.697 kg/week and so, again, only 2.5% are losing less than half a pound. And for those following the diet for more than 3 months, two thirds are losing 0.293 to 0.505 kg/week and 95% of people are losing between 0.187 and 0.611 kg/week, so around a third of people are losing less than half a pound a week.

So this crude analysis suggests that for most people the diet is certainly working and the percentage of people who enter their weightloss on the progress tracker that are losing less than half a pound a week is very small at least over the first 3 months. After 3 months things appear to slow down with more people losing less than half a pound a week. But for the majority it is still working.

Now of course there are many potential reasons why my quick calculation is not entirely accurate (not a normal curve, people don't enter their weight while on a plateau etc) but I can't believe it is so wrong to invalidate the broad conclusion that the diet is working for the majority of participants.

[Moogie]

Thanks Caro - and sorry I didn't get around to setting up the figures for this last night for you. I got roped into helping put up a rollerblind and it turned into a lengthy nightmare.

Anyway, will see what I can come up with for you in the near future!

Caroline, I think your info is all good but still there is the problem of the people who gave up tracking, or never started. We can try to build this in by considering the people who set themselves up on the tracker but never entered more than one reading: currently 1710 out of 4597 total - 37%. If we assume that all of these 1710 failed to lose any weight following 5:2 (or one of the other IF variants), and we then added in the ones who have recorded results but have lost less then 0.227kg/wk (your 95% test), that would still leave over 60% showing a useful rate of weight loss. So it works for most people?

In fact there are many reasons why people might only put in one tracker weigh-in. I think the main reason will not be that people follow 5:2 and it fails, it will be that they fail to follow it: non-compliance. Some people find it 'too hard' and give up, especially in the first few weeks (which are anyway the hardest). The 'User Data Available for Week by Week Loss Chart' does suggest a steady and significant fall-off in numbers following the diet as the weeks (for each dieter) roll by.

I think dominic has hit the nail on the head. 6 of my friends/close colleagues have tried 5:2. Of them, three have been doing it consistently for more than 3 months and all have seen good results. One has been doing it very inconsistently for 6 months and hasn't lost much at all overall; he'd cheat or only do one day some weeks etc. One only started a few weeks ago and the other gave up after two weeks because it was too hard.

Strangely (or perhaps not), my weight loss seems to speed up every other month. I will be steady or losing very slightly and then suddenly have a couple of weeks where I lose a kilo each week - most recently 5 months in!

[Moogie]

It would be interesting to see how many of those 'starting weight only' users are recent (eg in the last few weeks and haven't weighed in again yet) and how many signed up some time ago and gave up.

I don't put in my weigh in figures very often. If you have a break for a holiday or some other reason the figures are skewed until you are properly back on track and would give a false reading for effectiveness.

Wow I could have written Applespider's post. I've had exactly the same experience. I know about 7 people who have started 5:2. At this point one other person who started at the same time as me roughly 20 weeks ago (my start date is wrong on my tracker sorry!) has lost the same as me and is very happy with it. Others have been inconsistent, not sticking to fast day calories or gave up in the early weeks because of variously, headaches, low blood sugar etc. I think Dominic is right. If you follow it properly it works.

There are so many people who start out on "diets" but give up really quickly.
A work colleague gave up after two weeks because she said it was too hard but then when she saw how well the rest of us were doing she gave it another go and it's now working for her. This is not a quick fix and too many people want instant results. I think once people realise that it's a slow and steady weight loss programme without the hardships of other diets they are more likely to stick at it. It's working for me and I can't imagine following any other "diet". Colleague the other day turned down birthday cake as she was on a diet, I was more than happy to have a piece as I'd done my fast the day before !!

I think maybe a lot of people who have given up have done so because they think 5:2 is not working, but actually it probably is but just at an undetectable rate.

It is only for the fact that I weigh daily and on kencc's suggestion taking weekly averages that I can see what's really going on properly because my weight loss is exceptionally slow. Discounting the initial couple of weeks (shedding excess xmas poundage no doubt) I am talking, on average, 0.25 kg per week at most, which would be difficult to 'see' in a weekly snapshot because of general body weight fluctuations.

From end of March to end of May, having to contend with Easter, birthday and two bank holidays, I did not faithfully stick to two fasts per week and probably ate more than usual as well. During this period, I put a bit back on, but this to me further validates that 5:2 works - because when you don't do it properly, it doesn't work!

Anyway, as of start of June, I'm back on track and losing small amounts again, so I'm sticking the course. When I hit the 6 month mark, I'll post some graphs that will hopefully inspire some of the waverers not to give up.

Kencc, for us who don't do apps and statistics and charts etc, Moogie's tracker is a very nice way to see our wonderful trendline going downwards.
I'm sure that it might seem inadequate for a few members but for the majority it's doing its job perfectly!

I messed up my tracker too, so I don't put it on show to everyone. My 5:2 diet start date is a month before I joined the forum so I entered the wrong data. Plus I am shorter than I thought I was by 2cm, but I think I will stick to my original height because My BMI is better. So to me my tracker is not very motivating.

Chris x

I like the tracker on here as it is quite simple to use, and surely if you were to put your weight data on every morning then it would be more accurate.

Personally I am trying very hard not to step on the scales every day. I don't want to get too addicted to counting and weighing everything. It's still early days for me so time will tell.

I have tried so many different things since giving up smoking to keep the weight off and so far this has been the easiest to follow. Yes it does take discipline but it's just a day at a time.

Fingers crossed, I'll only check my weight once weekly and will keep adding the data.

Using spreadsheet at work to keep track of calories on Fast days and yes I have a graph on there as well for my weight loss, but nothing so sophisticated as Kencc . Hat off to him though for the effort put into this. It looks good, I am just too lazy to pay that much attention to everything.

Ken, I think you are being unfair on Moogie's tracker. One reason is that you are a tad over-ambitious about your target weight of 0lb Another is that you clearly haven't put as much data into it as you have into your other graph.

Your other graph has a smarter trendline I grant you but I think (hope) Moogie will improve the forum trendline which is a very new feature at present.

It is possible to add comments to each piece of weigh-in data on the forum Tracker but these comments don't seem to be displayed on the chart (publicly or privately). Could that be fixed @Moogie?

Not in a month of Sundays could I use the app to track weight...I will stick to our tracker on the forum and writing down my weight daily from morning weigh in provides me with all the info I need...it works well for me!! And the recent changes made by Moogie have been great..I would not know where to start..haha

I'm afraid I don't have a very analytical mind so, like Izzy and TML13, the fancy graphs make my brain hurt and I would be afraid to enter my data! As it is I only enter when I have lost a reasonable chunk as I find converting the tiny bits to kilos rather discouraging.

I think some of the problems we are encountering are due to people who have got used to the slimming club-type culture where you are badgered to lose fixed amounts of x pounds each week or told you aren't complying. This is a whole new concept with the idea of steadily improving your general health and losing weight at the same time. I think a lot of people who come on here to moan that it doesn't work are quite surprised to be told to give it time and its OK to go a month and not lose because it will go soon!

The forum really doesn't give the full picture because the ones who have it sussed tend to wander off and do their own thing whilst the main posters are the minority who struggle.

As I said before, I'm no analyst, but I can't see how you are going to get really good info off any tracker however posh as you have no control over the people inputting the data.